My latest Scene & Herd column, featuring a short love letter to Rufus Wainwright, is now online.
My latest Don’t Panic column, which attempts to answer the question “Can the U.S. militarily defeat the Iraqi insurgency?” is now online here.
I’ve also posting a ton of stuff on Atlanta’s Metblog site. Each post concludes with the author’s name, so look for your favorite authors my checking the bottom of each posting.
CIA says Iraq is now a terrorist training ground
Wed Jun 22, 3:35 PM ET
The CIA believes the Iraq insurgency poses an international threat and may produce better-trained Islamic terrorists than the 1980s Afghanistan war that gave rise to Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, officials said on Wednesday.
A classified report from the U.S. spy agency says Iraqi and foreign fighters are developing a broad range of skills, from car bombings and assassinations to coordinated conventional attacks on police and military targets, officials said.
Once the insurgency ends, Islamic militants are likely to disperse as highly organized battle-hardened combatants capable of operating throughout the Arab-speaking world and in other regions including Europe.
On Thursday, June 23 at 7:15, I’m going to be phone-in guest on “Walking A Thin Line,” a radio talk program on WTAN-AM 1340 Clearwater, Fla., WZHR-AM 1400 Zephyrhills, Fla., DCF-AM 1450 Dade City, Fla.
The subject of the broadcast is the war in Iraq. If you’re not in Central Florida, but would like to listen, WTAN radio is also broadcast live via the Internet. You can listen by clicking here. Windows Media Player is required.
A bunch of my new work is available on other web sites.
Phil and I recorded two new podcasts on My ‘Lanta.
My Scene & Herd column featuring Music Midtown, Vibe Musicfest and, most importantly, the Atlanta Harmonica Enthusiasts Meeting, was published yesterday in Creative Loafing.
My Don’t Panic column which answers the question “What is the Downing Street Memo?” was just published in three newspapers as well as Altweeklies.com.
And last but not least, I’ve got several new posts on Metblog.
As promised in my latest newspaper column, here’s the so-called Downing Street Memo, as printed in London’s The Sunday Times newspaper.
SECRET AND STRICTLY PERSONAL – UK EYES ONLY
DAVID MANNING
From: Matthew Rycroft
Date: 23 July 2002
S 195 /02cc: Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Attorney-General, Sir Richard Wilson, John Scarlett, Francis Richards, CDS, C, Jonathan Powell, Sally Morgan, Alastair Campbell
IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER’S MEETING, 23 JULY
Copy addressees and you met the Prime Minister on 23 July to discuss Iraq.
This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.
John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam’s regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August.
The two broad US options were:
(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).
(b) Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.
The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were:
(i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons.
(ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition.
(iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.
The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun “spikes of activity” to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMD were linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.
On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions.
For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary.
The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN.
John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.
The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.
Conclusions:
(a) We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.
(b) The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.
(c) CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.
(d) The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam.
He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.
(e) John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.
(f) We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.
(I have written separately to commission this follow-up work.)
MATTHEW RYCROFT
If you don’t feel like reading all that, here’s my summarized version:
Haven’t you ever wondered why you never see Indian mice with breast cancer?
Turmeric fights breast cancer in mice – study
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent Thu Jun 9, 4:19 PM ETWASHINGTON (Reuters) – Turmeric, a yellow spice used widely in Indian cooking, may help stop the spread of cancer, U.S. researchers reported on Thursday.
Tests in mice showed that curcumin, an active compound found in turmeric, helped stop the spread of breast cancer tumor cells to the lungs. (Read more)
I’ve been busy.
I’m now a contributor to Atlanta’s Metblog. It’s a group blog dedicated to all things Atlanta. I’ll be using it to talk about my neighborhood and things going on around town. I just wrote a piece about two thrilling events coming up this weekend, the Atlanta Harmonica Enthusiasts Meeting and Southeast Leatherfest. Oh, joy!
I’ve also been busy with the My ‘Lanta Podcast. We finished two new Podcasts this morning, the My ‘Lanta Community Calendar and a very special in-studio interview with local celebrity/celebrity wife, Lisa Baron. Give them a listen, would you?
I also posted what will likely be my final MonkeySars entry for a while. It’s continuation of last week’s tribute to the magical onion. I love posting to MonkeySars, but I’m a bit overextended right now.
I saw one of my favorite new bands, The Futureheads, at The Loft last night.
While at the show, I had what one might call an unfortunate incident.
I got in a brief scuffle with a man in a green cardigan when said man hopped on stage near the end of the show and stage dove — landing on my head. Because I was looking down at my telephone, I did not see him until he was almost on top of me.
We both fell to the floor. I was angry. My anger was compounded when sweater boy muttered something about it all being in “good fun.” I stood up, said, “you landed on my head, asshole,” grabbed him by the sweater, and shoved/pulled him to the floor with the intention of beating on him. I was pissed off. However, because I generally avoid confrontation and haven’t been in a fistfight since junior high, I wasn’t exactly sure how this whole fighting thing was suppose to work. I decided to punch him, but suddenly I felt constrained — mostly by the embarrassment I felt because so many people were staring.
Then Barry, the group’s singer, said stop.
I thought he was saying stop to me, so I stopped and looked up. In fact, he was saying stop to the band, who quickly stopped. Barry asked, into the mic while looking at me, if I was okay. “I’m fine.” He then chastised the jumper and mocked him: “I bet you feel stupid. You jumped on the meanest looking guy here.” That’s the first time anyone’s ever accused me of looking mean.
After asking me again if I was alright, the band started up again. Sweater boy, who’d been moshing like an idiot all night, kept putting his hand on me and apologizing. I told him that he needed to stop touching me now. He skulked away.
Before the final encore, the band’s other guitarist looked at me and said into the mic, “Sorry about your head.”
The Futureheads — a band that rocks, a band that cares.
Because everybody knows that the January 30 elections stopped the insurgency.
World > Terrorism & Security
posted June 1, 2005, updated 12:00 p.m.‘Peaceful’ Basra now out of control?
Iraqi police chief say at least 50 percent of his force has been infiltrated by sectarian militias.
By Tom Regan | csmonitor.comOn the very day that President George W. Bush was telling members of the media that he is pleased with the progress in Iraq, the chief of police in Basra, Iraq – long considered a much safer city than Baghdad – said that “he has lost control of 75 percent of his officers” and that “sectarian militias” had infiltrated his force. (read more)
This is funny, to me anyway:
Rocker Jeff Baxter Moves And Shakes In National Security — Once With Doobie Brothers, Now in Counterterrorism, He Has Ear of PentagonJeff Baxter played psychedelic music with Ultimate Spinach, jazz-rock with Steely Dan and funky pop with the Doobie Brothers. But in the last few years he has made an even bigger transition: Mr. Baxter, who goes by the nickname “Skunk,” has become one of the national-security world’s well-known counterterrorism experts. (Read More)